The Center Did Not Hold--or Did It?

Not only did François Bayrou lose his seat, but the center parties generally succumbed to the logic of a presidential system and its strong tendency to become biplar. But perhaps Hollande deserves more credit for this than he's generally given. His "centrist" approach to his candidacy, along with Socialist dominance of government at the local and regional levels, has weakened centrist fears of the Left. Just as the line between extreme-right and right has become increasingly blurred, so, too, has the line between center and center-left.

There may be a sociological basis to this result as well. The Socialist Party is no longer a workers' party. Most of the "workers" it retains are in fact public sector employees: schoolteachers, government workers, etc. Socially liberal professionals are plentiful in both Socialist and centrist ranks. Many of these people do not share the anti-EU, anti-globalization sentiments of either the extreme right or the extreme light, and they are put off not only by the droitisation of the center right but also by its crass pursuit of wealth (the bling-bling factor) to the exclusion of other cultural values.

Throughout the campaign, and indeed throughout the past five years, I argued that the 2012 election would be won in the center. My confidence in that interpretation wavered after the presidential, because 1) Sarkozy made a stronger showing than he should have if the center had really deserted him, and 2) I think Hollande won because the extreme right came to detest Sarkozysme as much as it has always detested the Left. But the legislative election makes me wonder if, indeed, France may have become a country where the majority is now in the broad center, which stretches from, roughly speaking, Hamon to Bayrou.

Interestingly, this very diverse "broad centrist" electorate may be easier to please when the issues are rather fragmented, as they are in a legislative election, than in a presidential election where a few high-cleavage issues tend to dominate the discussion, and where personal characteristics of the candidates ("the incarnation factor") loom large.

So perhaps I was right all along to think that France is now a country in which the center is trying hard to hold, and succeeding, even if the self-proclaimed "centrist" party(ies) fared quite poorly.

From Reader to Candidate

A regular reader and commenter on French Politics has become a candidate (MoDem) for the National Assembly in Argenteuil. Read FrédéricLN's declaration here.

A Centrist Decides ... for Hollande

Frédéric LN, MoDem supporter and erstwhile staffer, fellow blogger, reader of French Politics, and friend, has made up his mind to vote for Hollande. Here is his reasoning:

Une décision banale, un vote comme un autre, et pourtant, un vote dans l'inquiétude.
Parce que c'est la crise, et que le programme PS était aussi délirant que le programme UMP.
Parce que c'est la crise, et que la concentration des pouvoirs à l'Élysée garantit l'aveuglement et l'inefficacité des décideurs.
Sur ces deux sujets, François Hollande a montré, en particulier depuis le premier tour, qu'il était conscient des dangers. Il s'est engagé, verbalement, sur 50 milliards d'économies, sur 100 députés à la proportionnelle, sur des nominations contrôlées par le Parlement, sur un référendum pour abolir le cumul des mandats.
C'est exactement la réponse à nos questions. Ce qui pèse lourd dans la balance.
Mais que valent ces engagements verbaux ? Ceux de François Hollande pèseront-il moins léger que ceux pris en 2007 par Nicolas Sarkozy ?
Cela reste notre inquiétude…

Bernard Girard's analysis of the importance of Bayrou's (and Frédéric's) decision is here. For Bernard, MoDem's leader has signaled the divorce of the center from the right, with which it had lived in uneasy concubinage for more than half a century.

Cohn-Bendit to Bayrou: Get Off the Pot

Daniel Cohn-Bendit has urged François Bayrou to follow the lead of several members of his party and endorse Hollande, for to do otherwise is to favor the re-election of Sarkozy. Meanwhile, Frédéric Martel reminds us of Bayrou's detestation of Sarkozy, which makes his hesitation all the more puzzling.

Bayrou in Marseille

François Bayrou in Marseille rightly observed that large crowds have often been misinterpreted as signs of strong support. He also accused the two leading candidates of conspiring to avoid the real issue facing the country, and again I think he's right, although I don't think Bayrou has faced it either. Because the main issue is not balancing the national budget but restoring French--and European--growth. On that point, Bayrou has no more to offer than the others:

"Ce n'est pas à la dimension des foules qui assistent aux meetings que l'on mesure la vérité des discours qu'on y tient", a raillé François Bayrou. "Il est même assez souvent arrivé dans l'histoire que plus nombreuses soient les foules, plus gros soient les mensonges et plus graves les désillusions", a-t-il ajouté sous les applaudissements de ses supporters. "C'est d'autant plus vrai dans cette campagne présidentielle qui évite la vérité", a-t-il expliqué. "Nicolas Sarkozy et François Hollande mentent de concert, dans une entente implicite. Nicolas Sarkozy ne veut pas que l'on regarde son bilan de près et François Hollande a choisi de multiplier les promesses intenables", a-t-il accusé.