Friday, August 24, 2012

Grexit, Grinnit?

Frau Merkel met with Hollande yesterday, Samaras today. Friendly pictures emerged of both meetings, and friendly words issued. Greece will keep its promises, Samaras said. Merkel said she was "encouraged." "Trust" has been restored. Casual observers may be wondering what's going on, since Greece hasn't, you know, paid any actual bills since it was all doom and gloom a few weeks ago. But "Europe" is enjoying another of its fits of optimism. We made it through the last apocalypse by temporizing, leaders seem to be thinking, so we can make it through the next one. Mario Draghi has left speculators in just enough uncertainty that they aren't prepared to make large negative bets. And so we wait until the next major surprise, which could be the decision of the German Constitutional Court on Sept. 21. Meanwhile, the euro is up against the dollar--naturally, since I just bought tickets to Paris. I'm always on the wrong side of history.

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