La Rentrée

It's been a dull summer, but September promises to be an active month politically speaking. There will be elections in the Netherlands on Sept. 12, and the Socialist Party there is expected to do well:

Party leader Emile Roemer is staunchly anti-austerity (and a good deal to the left of Hollande):

Economic policy can [not] and must not be reduced to a set of rules which prescribe debt reduction.

Thirteen of the 17 eurozone countries are above the three percent deficit. Who is going tell who what to do? Come on, let’s use our minds and not become too obsessed with the agreed numbers…Rules are good, but we have to adjust to the realities of the moment. I am sure I’ll get broad support in Europe for this.

Such a shift in policy in a northern core economy could significantly affect the balance of power in the EU. On the same day, Sept. 12, the German Constitutional Court will rule on the legality of the European Stability Mechanism. These two events will have great significance for the future of French policy, but there isn't much that Hollande can do about either of them. His responses to both will be interesting to watch, however.