Jean-Marc Ayrault, whom many people, including me, expected to be named Prime Minister, was sentenced in 1997 (corrected from an earlier misstatement) to six months in jail (suspended) and a 30,000 euro fine for making a sweetheart deal with a local publisher in Nantes, of which he is mayor. Since Hollande has called for "an exemplary Republic," it seems unlikely that his first move would be to appoint a convicted grafter. Sic transit gloria mundi.
So who's going to get the nod? Lots of personal friction with Aubry. I think I'll put my money on Valls. This would be the cautious move. He's from the right wing of the party, to the right of Hollande, which might reassure the markets. He's smooth. He's calm, like Hollande. And he wants the job.